Pest Monitoring and Prediction


Pest Monitoring & Predictive Tools for Informed Decisions

The Oregon IPM Center produces and hosts multiple climate and weather-based decision support tools bringing together U.S. weather data with plant-pest and disease models in an online service to assist decision-support needs in agriculture.  Coupled with our monitoring programs, use this information to make informed decisions about your pest management priorities.

Program Goals

  • Provide free, comprehensive access to weather and climate models of all types to support IPM decision-making
  • Develop models that accurately predict pest development stages to best target vulnerable stages for pest management
  • Integrate both site-based and mapping-based tools for local, regional, and country-wide use
  • Collect regional insect trap count data and interpret findings to inform pest management priorities
  • Maintain and analyze historical records to compare current and forecasted pest levels to prior years
  • Report pest observations directly to stakeholders via social media and in an interactive location-based, real-time tool

Key Activities And Outputs

Based upon requests made by our stakeholders, we select “best available” research and field monitoring data to build new models for our pest prediction platform, and independently validate the models whenever possible. The models are then readily added to the modular, open-source software system.  Our models and features are built using funding from purpose-driven grants (largely from USDA-National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA), USDA-Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education (SARE) program , and USDA-Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Plant Protection and Quarantine (APHIS-PPQ), and priorities are determined through feedback from growers, researchers, extension agents, and other end-users who request models and features to support their pest management production, research or extension needs.

Currently, we have 15 invasive insect models, 47 insect pest models, 32 crop models, 24 disease risk models, 5 weed models, 2 tree fruit dormancy (chilling requirement) models, 2 predator mite models, 1 endangered species (a butterfly) model, 3 pesticide drift model prediction aids, a soil solarization model (currently for 2 species of Phytophthora), a grass seed stem rust simulation model, and 1 mating disruption dispenser model in the system, along with generic degree-day and plant disease risk models for exploratory research needs.


Other Activities:


Weather Database

We custom-integrate several agricultural weather networks, to be used in our models but also as a resource for anyone requiring current and historical data records across the continental U.S.


"Added Value” Features 

There are a number of innovative features such as:

  • Short and long-term forecasts, including 7-day, 3-month, and 7-month forecasts.
  • Interactive charts that show a range of projected outcomes using 7 different methods to forecast weather data
  • A system to fill in missing data with “virtual”, estimated data
  • A “Degree-Day Clock” tool that allows comparison of current season heat units to past years (e.g. reporting that we are for example “10 days behind last year and 10 days ahead of normal”)
  • Gridded map products: including interactive degree-day maps




MyPest Page

The MyPest Page tool is programed to be able to integrate new models and features, this feature provides an entry point for IPM, whereby multiple insect pests, diseases, weeds, crops, and beneficial organisms can be modeled from a single web-based user interface.


Pest Monitoring & Reporting

We assist in two pest monitoring programs, VegNet and the Oregon Pest Monitoring Network, providing survey results and real-time reporting of key agricultural pests throughout the Willamette Valley.  Find up-to-date reports on pest pressures throughout the growing season, including pest counts, historical data, and how to interpret the findings.  Stay tuned as we continue to expand these programs to incorporate additional commodities and regions throughout Oregon.



Training and outreach

This system is regularly demonstrated to growers at events around the Pacific Northwest region, and several “webinar” tutorials are on the website that demonstrate how the tools can be used. Trade publications often highlight the system as it applies to one or a few models. One-on-one training via the phone remains a good way to initiate a new user to use the website to meet their particular needs.